Source: http://ift.tt/tjP2I3 --- Friday, December 29, 2017
With any luck, the team’s two best players will be as good or better next season One of the favorite offseason pastimes of Baseball fans and pundits is to speculate about negative regression; that is, the expected drop in production for various players. With the two best players on the 2017 Yankees - Luis Severino and Aaron Judge - coming off breakout seasons, it’s proven popular for people to speculate about their 2018 campaigns. Many believe the two young superstars are due for a dip in performance. Certain players, and more importantly certain patterns, are largely regression proof, though. If either Judge or Sevy relied on luck or results-based approaches to hitting and pitching, they’d be prime candidates to drop off a bit in 2018. Instead, they count on positive processes to produce, and that kind of approach is what makes them such great candidates to repeat their success next season. Let’s start with Aaron Judge. For all his prodigious power, Judge’s best asset is his eye. Leading Baseball in walks while setting the all time rookie record for base on balls, Judge finished third in all of Baseball in OBP. He finished behind only Joey Votto and Mike Trout , arguably the two best bats of this generation and certainly the most patient. Even in Judge’s well-publicized slump in August, he reached base at a .353 clip, 30 basis points better than league average. This is important as on-base percentage, walk rates and other hallm ...
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