Source: www.fangraphs.com --- Sunday, January 28, 2018
During this quiet winter of Baseball, I’ve entertained myself with a mild obsession with the three true outcomes ( not outfits ). Dave Cameron took note of the three outcomes trend in early April 2017, only one week into the new season. “…while samples are still tiny for players and teams, things tend to stabilize pretty quickly at the league level. And, not surprisingly, the first week of the season was filled with the two things MLB games are becoming known for; strikeouts and home runs.” Cameron goes on to predict a record year for the three true outcomes in 2017. He was right. A steady slog towards three outcomes Baseball Figure 1 is an update of Bill Petti’s analysis back in 2012 . It looks at the average rate of the three outcomes by player for each season since 1913. The top blue line shows the proportion of plate appearances that have resulted in either a home run, strikeout or walk across seasons. I got here pretty easily: Like Bill, for each player, I added their home runs, strikeouts and walks in a season and divided that by the number of plate appearances. That provides the proportion of three outcomes plate appearances for each player. Unlike Bill, I used at least 170 plate appearances in a season as my cut off (rather than 500). Then, for each season, I found the average proportion of three outcomes plate appearances for eligible players. I followed this procedure for home runs, strikeouts and walks separately. The ...
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