Why MLB Experts Are So Bad at World Series Predictions

Source: www.cheatsheet.com --- Saturday, December 31, 2016
The safe World Series predictions say the Cubs will win it all, but MLB experts are usually wrong | Tim Bradbury/Getty Images Why is Major League Baseball so hard to predict? Forget about preseason predictions, because people have no idea what will happen at the trade deadline and what injuries will force a team to wave the white flag in July. Let’s focus on something easier, like predictions made at the start of the 2016 postseason. Everyone making those predictions had the list of playoff teams and knew how they were playing in October. So how many of the top MLB experts picked a Cleveland Indians-Chicago Cubs World Series with that advantage? Out of the 40-odd members of the media whose predictions we saw, just one — Adam Rubin, who covers the Mets for ESPN — called these two clubs in the Fall Classic. Everyone else writing for a major publication or spouting opinions on sports talk shows was wrong. We don’t blame them for missing the mark. After all, an editor demands a pick and it goes out for the world to see. Only in rare cases do they get called out for missing with their picks . Instead, we will focus on the reasons so many picks go bad . Three come to mind immediately. Favorites don’t win Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, and John Farrell look on during Game 3 of the ALDS against Cleveland | Elsa/Getty Images Baseball isn’t like other sports where favorites tend to win. Last year, anyone who casually followed the NBA could tel ...

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