Source: pregame.com --- Friday, September 11, 2015
Point Blank – September 11 NFL 2015 – “Just Win Baby”… Blue Jays/Yankees, and “Small Change”, got rained on (a little Tom Waits is never a bad thing)…It was mostly Bad Defense, in Foxboro (both ways)… Fantasy Friday begins…When the better team also has matchup advantages, they do tend to win games… On Wednesday in the opening 2015 Survival Pool salvo , I wrote about how different this NFL season is going to be – the teams at the top are good, not great, and the teams at the bottom are bad, not awful. That is going to manifest itself in the kind of pointspreads we will be seeing, far fewer big favorites than in the past. It also means time to begin building your own disciplines for this season, to put yourself in the best position to win. First, as much as I loathe the kind of ATS trends that get thrown into the conversation when the NFL season begins (there was a two-part take on that last October, which I will rewrite soon), with the overwhelming majority of them being of little to no predictive value, it is naturally even less so when the spreads shrink. A team winning by three or four points when they were -2.5 does not tell you much at all about how they perform as a “favorite”, but it can tell you something about their ability to win games. It is that aspect of football science that needs to be a bigger part of your curriculum this fall. The flip side of the example of the short favorite is the short underdog, of course. ...
from NFL http://ift.tt/1MgvJHF
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