Source: theringer.com --- Monday, May 29, 2017
Baseball’s best player — and the AL’s likely MVP — was enjoying his best campaign (Getty Images) Believing in Baseball stats often means being a buzzkill. That surprise team that’s off to such a fast and fun start? Well, look at their BaseRuns record, their cluster luck, their raft of one-run wins — there’s no way they can keep that up. That hitter who’s flirting with .400 in mid-May? Just look at those launch angles, that exit speed, that chase rate — nah, he’s not this good. That pitcher with the miniscule ERA? Look at the low BABIP, the lack of strikeouts, the so-so spin rate — sorry, but nobody’s buying it. Subscribing to sabermetrics means saying “sample size” and “unsustainable,” repeating “run differential” and “regression,” and, in lieu of making dramatic, went-with-my-gut predictions, linking to projections pages that report the results of thousands of simulations of the rest of the season. Yes, sometimes the stats say that a team has been better than the standings suggest, or that a pitcher or hitter has had hard luck. And sometimes — fortunately, for anyone who hates the idea of predictable Baseball — a team or player defies the projections for a full season, which is all the more exciting for its improbability. It’s rare, though, that the statistically inclined fan or media member gets to make the most sensational statement. Projections are based on probabilities and past precedents, and as much as we remember and ce ...
from Baseball http://ift.tt/2rerdlX
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