Source: thecomeback.com --- Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Baseball players have bad seasons for all kinds of reasons. Sometimes they’re not right physically. Other times they’re distracted by off-field issues. Maybe they’re not getting proper coaching. And quite often, they’re actually performing just fine and merely falling victim to bad luck, as hitters’ line drives find gloves and pitchers’ home-run balls eke over the fence. Though we can’t know for sure whose bad seasons are aberrations and whose are something more, looking beyond superficial statistics can often provide us with hints. That’s the idea behind this column, which will identify six players who, for one reason or another, seem bound to perform better in 2018 than they did in 2017. We did this exercise last year and hit on five of our six picks (curse you, Jason Heyward), which means either we got lucky, or we’re worth listening to. So without further ado, our projected breakout/bounce-back candidates for the upcoming season: Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays When projecting a pitcher’s future performance, it’s generally more useful to look at his FIP (which is calculated using only strikeout rate, walk rate and home-run rate) than his ERA (which is subjected to the whims of batted-ball luck). Well, whereas Chris Archer’s 4.07 ERA in 2017 suggested something like a league-average starter, his 3.40 FIP placed him 11th in all of Baseball among qualified starters. Archer struck out batters at the highest rate of his career last ...
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