Source: www.baseballmusings.com --- Sunday, April 29, 2018
Regular readers of Baseball Musings are aware of the daily Beat the Streak Picks post. Today’s pick, Jean Segura , recorded a hit in his second plate appearance of day, completing 30 days of picks. The Neural Network got 27 of 30 right , when the probabilities it produced indicated an expectation of 22 correct. The probability of getting at least 27 right when the overall probability is 0.727 is 0.02. That means the result falls outside the 95% confidence interval. In other words, the Neural Network started the year with a very lucky streak. The ninety percent mark is interesting for another reason. A predictor with 90% accuracy would have a realistic chance of producing a 57 game streak. That is, you would have about a 1 in 5 chance of a 57 game streak each time you started a streak. The NN isn’t there. Small tweaks I’ve tried have not improved things. I suspect for the moment, 75% will be the best we can do. Maybe the luck will continue, but at some point I expect a big regression to the mean. ...
from Baseball https://ift.tt/2vWwDYL
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